Introduction: The Misreading of a War in Motion

Three main factors have been modeled in understanding the Sahel over the past few decades; terrorism, weak states and poor governance. This framework has managed to provide clear and understandable information in the past; however, this  framework  is no longer functional in analyzing a Sahel with global secondary actors and shadow directors. The Sahel is no longer a simple analysis of armed groups contesting state control. The battlefield now extends beyond the fight between insurgents and governments. The battle now involves foreign armies, private security companies,  regional governments and businesses which operate through a changing system of extraction and protection and power distribution.

The situation has progressed beyond a security emergency. The entire situation now operates as a system. The battle economy functions at the center of the operation because it contains elements which other countries use to wage their battles.

The Illusion of Counterterrorism Success

The start of Operation Barkhane brought expectations of operational disruption. French forces used their superior intelligence and mobility capabilities to reduce militant strength across critical regions. High-value targets were eliminated. Supply lines faced disruption. The actual combat results showed that the forces achieved multiple tactical accomplishments.

The operation focused on the visible architecture of insurgency—fighters, camps, and leadership—while leaving intact the invisible infrastructure that sustained it. Financial networks, local alliances, smuggling corridors, and community-level economic dependencies remained largely untouched.

The following terrorist groups; Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara developed new methods to operate. The organization opted for decentralized operations to develop stronger ties with local economies while expanding their revenue sources through taxation protection rackets and artisanal mining and cross-border trading activities.

The lesson shows that military operations cannot defeat insurgencies which depend on economic support. The war economy maintains itself which results in the ongoing existence of the conflict.

Structural Roots: Fragility Meets Opportunity

The structural weaknesses of the Sahel region which include inadequate governance and insufficient government presence, economic exclusion have been present since ancient times. The different ways these vulnerabilities now operate in competitive environments represent their current transformation from past practice.

Between 2020 and 2023 a wave of coups reshaped the political landscape across countries like Mali Burkina Faso and Niger. The events represented more than just new leaders; they established a new phase of strategic relationships. The new governments which had broken ties with their Western allies started to pursue different methods of obtaining military support and public confidence.

This situation prompted foreign entities to boost their involvement in the region. The Wagner Group became an important actor who provided protection for governments in exchange for control over mineral assets. The agreements which involve “security-for-resources” arrangements establish a new economic framework that changes business operations. The agreements establish new state objectives which redirect financial resources while creating partnerships between international organizations and domestic market systems.

The region experienced simultaneous growth of Belt and Road Initiative projects which expanded throughout its territories. The implementation of infrastructure projects which include roads and railways and energy systems has enhanced transportation links while enabling Sahelian goods to access international trade routes.

The current progress has failed to address necessary changes in governance systems. The existing power structures have received reinforcement through these initiatives which have failed to create any new organizational developments. The outcome leads to a situation where economic growth occurs but institutions do not experience any development.

Expanding Regional Competition: New Players, New Layers

The presence of regional actors has grown stronger than the influence of major global powers. The United Arab Emirates and Morocco together with other countries, have increased their investment in mining operations and logistics development and trade corridor construction.

The economic activities that they pursue do not operate with neutral economic relationships. The activities function as strategic operations which enable them to gain control over power and resources while they establish their enduring territorial presence.

A multi-layered system emerges which includes two security partnerships that safeguard both regimes and essential infrastructure and two security partnerships that safeguard both regimes and essential infrastructure. The infrastructure projects create pathways for resource extraction and transportation of resources. The economic investments establish permanent control over strategic areas. The local elite groups control the arrangements but receive benefits from them.

The system operates through interrelated components which work together to support its function. The system creates a power structure which connects different elements to operate independently from official state organizations.

The system operates according to its normal procedures which include violent acts as planned events. The system views violence as an essential aspect of its operation.

The War Economy: From Survival to Strategy

The Sahelian war economy began its initial development phase which focused primarily on sustaining existence. Armed groups used their military power to impose taxes on local populations while they maintained control over trade routes and conducted their illegal operations.

The situation has developed into a more organized strategic approach. Multiple groups now use violence as a weapon which insurgents originally developed. Security contracts receive justification through the creation of conditions which enable their implementation. External powers can use existing governance disruptions to establish their presence. Resource distribution and access to resources determine who will obtain control of them.

Some regions use instability as a method to gain power.

Armed groups provide a valid reason for deploying private security forces according to the following statement. Security forces protect both mining locations and transportation routes. The process of resource extraction combined with resource transportation creates revenue streams which fund systems that rely on ongoing insecurity for existence.

The Sahelian war economy centers around this feedback loop which creates its economic structure.

The actors in the situation do not pursue complete disorder because they find it appealing. The actors work within a framework which permits them to gain economic and political benefits from maintaining controlled social unrest.

The Internationalization of Conflict

The present period of Sahelian violence shows its international character as the main factor which distinguishes it from previous conflicts. The region has become an essential element of global power struggles because it no longer functions as an auxiliary battlefront.

Russia seeks to expand its influence and challenge Western presence. China builds economic ties through its long-term infrastructure and trade development initiatives. Gulf states establish strategic investments which help them secure their supply chains while gaining control over key geopolitical territories. Regional powers position themselves as intermediaries and beneficiaries.

Each actor brings its own logic, but all converge on the same terrain. The Sahel becomes the meeting point. The two parties involved in this convergence process fail to establish any form of mutual coordination. The system creates multiple competing elements which operate through hidden connections.

The result creates a divided space which hosts competing agendas that occasionally work together while often clashing. Local residents face uncertainty because of the complicated nature of their situation. Alliances shift. Power centers multiply. Accountability becomes diffuse. The war economy develops its operations within that unclear situation.

Strategic Implications: Violence as an Economic System

The ongoing violence in the Sahel requires analysis beyond the terms which describe states and their policies and their intervention efforts as complete failures. The situation which is developing now represents more than just failure. The process involves new approaches which have developed from the existing situation.

The system now uses violence as an essential operational element. Security and extraction operations along with governance functions have transformed into interdependent components of a unified system.

The ecosystem operates with these components:

• Armed groups function as both economic entities and ideological organizations
• States participate in established agreements because they cannot control all processes themselves
• External actors participate as involved stakeholders instead of remaining distant supporters
• The economic system uses violence to create and maintain its financial processes

The new framework creates important effects which reach beyond basic understanding. The study shows that military-focused approaches will not succeed. The study shows that financial systems require disruption while incentive systems need complete transformation and governance needs to be established through initial development.

The study shows that economic principles which drive conflict must be addressed because they form the main barrier to achieving peace.

Outlook: A Conflict That Pays for Itself

The ongoing Sahelian conflict exists as a self-sustaining entity which continues to operate without external support. The financial foundation of the organization has maintained its complete integrity. The system provides benefits which the participants evaluate as useful.

The external competition brings additional resources which strengthen existing operational patterns but do not disrupt them.

The situation does not exist in a permanent state. The situation changes because it transforms throughout time. The system maintains its core operational patterns despite all other elements of the system changing.

The economic benefits and political advantages derived from violence will sustain its ongoing presence.

To break this cycle, intervention will not suffice. The process needs a fundamental transformation which involves studying three aspects: the methods used to create incentives, the mechanisms of power allocation, and the ways external parties interact with local situations.

The Sahel region will maintain its current status until that point is reached. The area has developed from a simple conflict zone into an active system of economic warfare.

Field Reflection: Seeing the System Clearly

The Sahel region gets oversimplified by distant observers who only see the headlines about its terrorism  and instability problems. The situation develops additional dimensions which create more complex problems than the existing situation shows.

The narrative describes more than just chaotic elements. The narrative describes an established system which exists through hidden networks that connect people and safeguard their power relations to their official institutions.

The initial step to understand that system requires you to gain knowledge about its actual structure.

Our battle against the system continues because we fail to perceive it as it truly exists.